Looking Back, Looking Ahead

2010 has been a good year for the economy, and 2011 could be better if we manage the risks

 

           Political news continues to dominate the headlines, unfortunately for all the wrong reasons. If you are looking for something to cheer you up for the New Year, turn to the news on the economic front. 2010 has been a good year, and 2011 could be better if we can manage the risks.
   High growth is back. Midyear estimates for 2010-11 indicate that the economy is currently growing at an annual rate of 8.9%. Moreover, the high growth is well dispersed, which augurs well for its sustainability through 2011 and beyond. Agriculture is lagging behind with a growth rate of less than 4%. So also the utilities sector – electricity, gas and water supply – growing at less than 5%. All other sectors are growing at over 8%. Some major sectors like manufacturing, transport, communications, wholesale and retail trade, hotels and tourism are growing at remarkable rates of over 11%.
   On the demand side, private consumption, capital formation and exports, the three largest components of aggregate demand, are growing at 10.6%, 14.9% and 10.1% respectively in real terms. Responding to this robust growth performance, the stock price index has also climbed back to 20,000. It last reached this level in early 2008 before the global financial crisis triggered its tailspin down to 7,000.
   Alongside this buoyancy, there are also some adverse developments. These are risks that will have to be managed if the high growth of 2010 is to be sustained or bettered in 2011. The immediate worry is inflation. Consumer prices continue to increase at near double-digit levels (9.7%), a trend recently dramatised by the sharp rise in onion prices. Currently food prices are inflating at an annual rate of over 12%. The other major source of rising consumer prices is the price of crude oil and related products. These prices are inflating at an annual rate of around 15%, but could go higher if global crude prices keep climbing towards $100 a barrel or more.
   For several quarters now, the RBI has been tightening monetary policy to curb inflationary
pressures. Commodity specific interventions have also been introduced to stabilise those food prices that have risen most sharply, such as onions now and sugar earlier. However, the government’s basic fiscal policy stance has remained expansionary. The finance minister announced recently that the fiscal stimulus will be retained for some more time, implying a large deficit again in the Budget for 2011-12.
   At first glance, this is puzzling, since the main worry now is inflation not growth, and that would call for fiscal compression. However, the finance minister may be anticipating further increases in the price of oil, and providing for compensation to oil companies if they are prevented from fully passing on the price increases to consumers. Hence, paradoxically, the main aim of the deficit may indeed be containing inflation.
   A second major risk is the continuing sovereign debt crisis in Europe. After Greece and Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy are the next in line for a potential sovereign debt default. If one or more of these countries do default, the effects will be transmitted to India via two main channels. One is trade. A further slowdown or recession in Europe will hurt India’s exports to Europe, and hence its growth. However, that effect will be muted so long as India’s other major trading partners, especially China and the US, remain buoyant. Indeed, growth in the EU area as well as Japan has been quite depressed this year, but its impact on India is barely visible.
   The other transmission channel is flow of capital. The volumes of sovereign debt in the countries at risk are not large enough for such defaults to trigger another global recession. In fact, such an event could further divert capital flows from Europe to less risky emerging markets like India, as is already happening to some extent. The recent bull run in the stock market, like that of 2007, has been led by the inflow of portfolio investments from foreign institutional investors. This is not an unmixed blessing. The resulting rupee appreciation has hurt the growth of exports, and a sudden stop or reversal of these flows could again destabilise the market. However, with the US economy recovering, fuelled by Barack Obama’s recent tax cut Bill and exceptional monetary expansion, a second global recession seems improbable. On balance, while Europe remains a negative factor, it is not likely to derail high growth in India.
   The third and most important risk is political, the deficit of good governance. Nitish Kumar’s resounding victory in Bihar reinforces the signals from other recent elections, that performance is finally replacing political mobilisation based on caste and religion. Daily revelations about multiple scams, from looting of 2G spectrum sale money and Commonwealth Games money to Adarsh Society and other land allocation deals also suggest that while corruption is widespread and deep-seated, some institutional safeguards are still working. On the other hand, selective targeting of investment proposals has spread great nervousness in the corporate world. Political patronage or the lack of it, not performance, will still be the main determinant of economic success in 2011. The more things seem to change, the more they remain the same.

Vision 2011

It’s time to step on the economic accelerator

   At year-end, India can pat its back on rebounding from the post-2008 slowdown. An enviable 9% growth rate looks doable soon. But if crisis management up to 2010 impresses, UPA-II needed to use its enhanced political mandate of 2009 to resolutely walk the reforms road, more so since the Left is no longer around to play spoiler. But aside from okaying disinvestment in timid bursts, it’s still to execute a big-ticket reforms menu. Without this, clocking and sustaining double-digit growth and fulfilling social sector pledges won’t happen. A midpoint in UPA’s second stint, 2011 is a good time to press the accelerator.
   High food prices will persist into the new year, a reminder of the farm sector’s structural anomalies. Liberalising multibrand retail will bring assured benefits to agriculture by creating infrastructure and jobs. Raising farm productivity – and agriculture’s GDP input – is urgent. For that, farmers need fair price discovery through access to diversified markets. The Planning Commission is said to want farming’s technological upgrade together with the trimming of food and fertiliser subsidies soon. Neither is possible without reform, which should go along with PDS revamp. Let’s experiment more boldly with alternative delivery mechanisms – backed by the UID and financial inclusion projects – to give food security to both farm and non-farm poor.
   We need a common market, unhindered by too many inter-state barriers, market intermediaries or taxes. In this context 2011 needs to see the debut of GST, an indirect tax reform that, along with a new, streamlined direct tax code, can transform the economy. With Centre-state fiscal burdens pared via boosted tax compliance, bigger spends can go to social and physical infrastructure: schools and hospitals, roads, ports and power projects. Both are areas the plan panel rightly marks out for the 12th Plan’s special focus. Raising funds via reforms – including through spurred disinvestment – is top priority, because yawning fiscal deficits dent investor feelgood. In fact, FDI’s recent worrying dip should prompt us to open up, besides retail, other closeted sectors like insurance, defence and education.
   In 2011, let’s treat speeded-up industrialisation as non-negotiable. For too long, we’ve tripped ourselves by sticking with antiquated labour laws that hamper business viability, impede organised labour’s expansion and skills upgrade, and doom casual workers to low wages and insecurity. Farm livelihoods can’t sustain all our youthful, productive hands. And schemes like NREG can’t substitute for factory jobs of the kind helping China fight poverty so successfully. Nor should industry’s advance and the building of infrastructure keep being blockaded by land-related agitations. Let 2011 produce a definitive and revamped blueprint for transparent, market-driven property transactions. That’ll make buyer and seller both stakeholders in inclusive growth.

A Crucial Connection

India can hardly overstress the link tying natural resources to national security

   With India’s soaring growth and rising global clout hogging media headlines, it is easy to forget the nation is beset by security challenges. Naxalite insurgency rages across more than two-thirds of India’s states, while long-simmering tensions in J&K exploded once again this summer. Meanwhile, two years post-Mumbai, Pakistan remains unwilling or unable to dismantle the anti-India militant groups on its soil. Finally, China’s military rise continues unabated. As Beijing increases its activities across the Himalayan and Indian Ocean regions, fears about Chinese encirclement are rife.
   It is even easier to forget that these challenges are intertwined with natural resource issues. Policy makers in New Delhi often fail to make this connection, at their own peril. Twenty-five per cent of Indians lack access to clean drinking water; about 40 per cent have no electricity. These constraints intensify security problems.
   India’s immense energy needs – household and commercial – have deepened its dependence on coal, its most heavily consumed energy source. But India’s main coal reserves are located in Naxalite bastions. With energy security at stake, New Delhi has a powerful incentive to flush out insurgents. It has done so with heavy-handed shows of force that often trigger civilian casualties. Additionally, intensive coal mining has displaced locals and created toxic living conditions for those who remain. All these outcomes boost support for the insurgency.
   Meanwhile, the fruits of this heavy resource extraction elude local communities, fuelling grievances that Naxalites exploit. A similar dynamic plays out in J&K, where electricity-deficient residents decry the paltry proportion of power they receive from central government-owned hydroelectric companies. In both cases, resource inequities are a spark for violent anti-government fervour.
   Resource constraints also inflame India’s tensions with Pakistan and China. As economic growth and energy demand have accelerated, India has increased its construction of hydropower projects on the western rivers of the Indus Basin – waters that, while allocated to Pakistan by the Indus Waters Treaty, may be harnessed by India for run-of-theriver hydro facilities. Pakistani militants, however, do not make such distinctions. Lashkar-e-Taiba repeatedly lashes out at India’s alleged “water theft”. Lashkar, capitalising on Pakistan’s acute water crisis (it has Asia’s lowest per capita water availability), may well use water as a pretext for future attacks on India.
   Oil and natural gas are resource catalysts for conflict with China. Due to insufficient energy supplies at home, India is launching aggressive efforts to secure hydrocarbons abroad. This race brings New Delhi into fierce competition with Beijing, whose growing presence in the Indian Ocean region is driven in large part by its own search for natural resources.
   India’s inability to prevent Chinese energy deals with Myanmar (and its worries about similar future arrangements in Sri Lanka) feeds fears about Chinese encirclement, but also emboldens India to take its energy hunt further afield. Strategists now cite the protection of faraway future energy holdings as a core motivation for naval modernisation plans; India’s energy investments already extend from the Middle East and Africa to Latin America. Such reach exposes India to new vulnerabilities, underscoring the imperative of enhanced sea-based energy transit protection capabilities.
   While sea-related China-India tensions revolve around energy, land-based discord is tied to water. South Asia holds less than 5 per cent of annual global renewable water resources, but China-India border tensions centre around the region’s rare water-rich areas, particularly Arunachal Pradesh. Additionally, Chinese dam-building on Tibetan Plateau rivers – including the mighty Brahmaputra – alarms lower-riparian India. With many Chinese agricultural areas water-scarce, and India supporting nearly 20 per cent of the world’s population with only 4 per cent of its water, neither nation takes such disputes lightly.
   India’s resource constraints, impelled by population growth and climate change, will likely worsen in the years ahead. Recent estimates envision water deficits of 50 per cent by 2030 and outright scarcity by 2050, if not earlier. Meanwhile, India is expected to become the world’s third-largest energy consumer by 2030, when the country could import 50 per cent of its natural gas and a staggering 90 per cent of its oil. If such projections prove accurate, the impact on national security could be devastating.
   So what can be done? First, New Delhi must integrate natural resource considerations into security policy and planning. India’s navy, with its goal of developing a blue-water force to safeguard energy resources overseas, has planted an initial seed. Yet much more must be done, and progress can be made only when policy makers better understand the destabilising effects of resource constraints. Second, India should acknowledge its poor resource governance, and craft demandside, conservation-based policies that better manage precious – but not scarce – resources. This means improved maintenance of water infrastructure (40 per cent of water in most Indian cities is lost to pipeline leaks), more equitable resource allocations, and stronger incentives for implementing water- and energy-efficient technologies (like drip irrigation) and policies (like rainwater harvesting).
   Such steps will not make India’s security challenges disappear, but they will make the security situation less perilous. And they will move the country closer to the day when resource efficiency and equity join military modernisation and counterinsurgency as India’s security watchwords.

Onions, At Whose Cost?

Keeping farm policy out of the economic reforms agenda hits farmers the most

 

The panic reaction of the government over onion prices demonstrates yet again that the agenda of economic reforms and liberalisation is destined to remain confined to the corporate sector while farm policy remains hostage to draconian restrictions and statist interventions to appease the influential urban consumer.
   Each episode of sharp escalation in onion prices has followed large-scale crop destruction. The crisis of 1998, which led to the downfall of the BJP government in Delhi, was caused by the El Nino factor which destroyed a large part of the crop in Nashik, the onion-growing belt of Maharashtra. When prices rose to Rs 60 a kilo, the Delhi government imported onions from the very countries to which we had earlier exported. Even though the landing price was no less than Rs 60 per kilo, these onions were sold to urban consumers at Rs 10 a kilo through government outlets.
   This time large-scale floods in the onion-growing states again led to massive crop destruction with prices shooting up from Rs 30 to Rs 70 a kilo within a week. The media failed to report that even with high prices, the loss of crop has meant that farmers are not recovering even the cost of production. Also, that the cultivation cost has escalated dramatically because farm inputs, including labour costs, have sharply escalated in recent years. With vegetables and fruits, the difference between farm gate price and consumer price can be as high as 400 per cent. Farmers get only a small part of the benefit from rising prices.
   But the government does little to correct this distortion. Instead, all we get are knee-jerk reactions announcing sudden bans on exports proving that the issue is being viewed solely from the point of view of the urban consumer, not the farmer. A government sensitive to farmers’ concerns would launch a concerted media campaign to urge urban consumers to bear with short-term inconvenience, to explain that the temporary high prices due to crop shortage would help farmers devastated by crop destruction due to flood
to recover part of their losses.
   If urban consumers reduce their onion consumption for a few days, prices would stabilise much sooner than with public hysteria around the issue. It is ridiculous to invoke the Essential Commodities Act to ban exports to bring down prices through non-market, statist interventions. Or for our ministers to threaten action against "hoarders." It shows they don't know that onions cannot be stored or hoarded for long. They start drying and losing weight within a week.
   This is not to deny that the poor are indeed hit by sharp escalation in food prices. But they are no less adversely hit by lack of sanitation, basic housing or clean drinking water. Yet, these issues never acquire the urgency that urban middle class concerns do.
   The panic created by middleclass consumers needs to be seen in perspective. These families think nothing of buying an ice cream cone for Rs 50, a pizza for Rs 400, 1 litre sugarflavoured water for Rs 50 – but go hysterical if onion prices shoot up to Rs 60 a kilo. This happens year after year with crop after crop – sugar, rice, wheat, cotton. At the time of crop harvest, exports are often banned so that prices come crashing down and farmers have to sell at a loss because they don’t have the holding capacity. The moment select traders have acquired the desired crop at artificially depressed prices, export quotas are slowly opened so that these already wealthy merchants make a big killing at the cost of farmers.
   Many farmers growing onions and other perishable crops end up ploughing back their crops into the soil because the artificially depressed prices do not even cover the cost of carrying them to the mandi. Our urban-centric media rarely sheds any tears for the plight of indebted farmers at such times.
   This economic warfare on the Indian farmer is carried out year after year with the active collusion of the bureaucracy and politicians in return for a share of the booty. The now on, now off export quotas destroy the credibility of India’s export sector and reduce our leverage in the international market. These manipulations are the primary reason for the Indian farmer’s indebtedness.
   Needless restrictions on the farm sector have led to depressed incomes, stagnant agricultural production and distortions in trade and pricing, flight of people and capital from the sector, diminishing investments in agriculture which obstructs the organic growth of agro-based industries in villages and consequently results in higher prices of food crops.
   The answer to rural poverty does not lie in the government pretending to feed the farmers who feed us all by corruptionridden “welfare” schemes like providing foodgrains to farmers at Rs 2 a kilo. That too distorts market prices and harms the farm sector. Farmers need fair prices for their products, not to live on crumbs thrown by the government.
   Just as the corporate sector has flourished even with halfhearted doses of liberalisation and the end of licence-quota raj so also the farm sector can flourish only when the agenda of economic reforms extends to it – which means the dead hand of the government is not allowed to choke the enterprise of our farmers. The policy of restrictive quotas for farm produce export needs to be junked to help farmers earn better prices, which in turn will enable them to invest in improving production. Higher production will inevitably bring down food prices.

Hope you enjoy this!

It Happened One Christmas

                                           by Daniel 'Chip' Ciammaichella,

A picture could never do justice to downtown Raton at Christmastime. Traveling north on

Main, one is treated to the twinkling glow of multi-colored Christmas lights lining the

street and adorning the well-kept storefronts, all nestled under the imposing, snowcovered

mountains and mesas that separate New Mexico from Colorado. At this late hour

on Christmas Eve the view was unspoiled by the presence of people and vehicles. Most

folks were at home with family and friends, celebrating and looking forward to the magic

of Christmas morning.

Despite the charm of downtown Raton, Daryl Washburn wasn't in a mood to appreciate it

as he trudged up Main past the Christmas tree in Ripley Park. He was having a hard time

getting into the Christmas spirit this year. Daryl, along with his wife and twin daughters,

had moved to Raton almost two years earlier. He had taken a job at the Cimarron

underground coal mining operation, but was recently laid off when the company shut the

mine down. Daryl had been looking for work ever since, living off of his severance pay

and doing any odd jobs he could find. His truck needed a transmission, he was a month

behind with the rent, the kids were outgrowing clothing and shoes rapidly, and his wife

Sara had recently quit working at the Loaf-n-Jug because of the advanced state of her

pregnancy. It was going to be a lean Christmas for the Washburns.

As Daryl turned up towards Sugarite and the north part of town, he stopped to adjust the

armload of packages he was carrying. These packages were all the presents the

Washburns would get this Christmas. He'd gotten a winter coat and a doll for each of the

twins, slippers and a ten-dollar pair of earrings for Sara, and a small turkey for Christmas

dinner.

"Not much, but better than nothing." he mumbled to himself as he continued on his way

towards home. He had hoped to buy more, but he'd lost the money to do so. It was his

own fault. Daryl had figured on saving a few bucks on a Christmas tree by just cutting his

own from up on the Old Pass Road. The tree turned out to be a very expensive one

indeed, after the property owner had him arrested and the judge socked him with a three

hundred dollar fine.

"If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all," he'd told the judge.

Despite his current run of bad luck, Daryl refused to let go of his lifelong dream. He

wanted to own his own small business. Ever since high school Daryl had been interested

in computers and the way they would change the way Americans lived, worked, and

played. He figured that with the right computer equipment and software, he could offer a

variety of services from his own home, starting off part-time as he worked a regular job

and building up to a full time endeavor.

Back home in Kentucky, he had followed in his father's footsteps and worked in the coal

mines. Unfortunately, the coal mining business back east was mediocre, at best. Just as he

would begin to earn enough money to start saving for his dream, the lay-offs would

come. When he did return to work, it was all he could manage just to pay the bills that

had piled up while he was laid off. He jumped at the chance to work in the New Mexico

mine. He worked hard, was well liked, and saved every penny he could. Just as he'd

caught up on paying moving expenses, Sara discovered she was pregnant again. Then the

Cimarron mine closed down, and Daryl was out of work again.

As Daryl made his way through the crisp Raton winter night he didn't notice the gay

decorations, the twinkling lights, or the sweet smell of burning cedar and pinon that

wisped up from every fireplace. His mind was so cluttered by his own problems he didn't

even notice the struggling figures under the railroad underpass, until he was right on top

of them. A feeble cry for help jolted his senses back to the here and now.

"Help me somebody! Please, don't do this."

Not ten feet in front of Daryl was an old man dressed as Santa Claus, lying on the ground,

pleading with three youths who were kicking him as he lay defenseless.

"Come on, old man. Give us your money or we'll hurt you bad."

"Yeah, you fat old coot. Give up the cash."

"Please, I don't have any money. Leave me alone. I'm late; I've got to get going. Don't

you boys believe in Santa Claus?"

"Sure, we believe in Santa, don't we guys? You'd better believe in God, cause your gonna

need him if you don't hand over your wallet." The young thug punctuated his words with

a kick to the old man's ribs.

As the ugly scene unfolded before his eyes, all of Daryl's sadness and frustration turned

to rage. "Things like this don't happen in Raton, especially not on Christmas Eve," he

thought angrily. He dropped his packages and rushed toward the old man and his

assailants.

"Hey! You punks leave that old man alone."

Startled, the youths turned to face Daryl. While the three only looked to be only sixteen

or seventeen, their eyes had the hollow look of hungry wolves closing in for the kill.

Daryl had fought his share of fights, but a chill ran down his spine as he wondered if he

could handle this bunch alone. The old man in the Santa suit didn't look to be in much

shape to help out, and Daryl thought furiously for a way to get out of this in one piece.

He thought, "When in doubt, bluff".

"I've had a bad day, boys. Why don't you just go on your way and save me the trouble of

giving you the whipping your daddies should have."

The youths only laughed. "What have we here, a concerned citizen? Why don't you just

keep on walking, mister? Hurry, before we stomp on you like we did old Santa Bum

there."

The closest youth let fly a large ball of spit that found its mark on Daryl's face.

"That tears it..." Daryl launched his right fist directly into the nose of the spitter, causing

him to fall to the ground holding his bleeding, broken, nose between his hands. Daryl

then turned to face the other two thugs, but before he could lash out again he felt a sharp

pain shoot through his head, then another, and another, and another.

"So much for bluffing...," he thought as the world went black.

*****

As Daryl began to regain his senses, he felt like every part of his body was in pain. His

head felt like ten thousand little men were using jackhammers on it, from the inside. He

tried to get up, but collapsed as the world began to spin around him.

"By golly, I was starting to think that you were dead, son."

Daryl opened his eyes, and once they regained focus he saw the face of a white bearded

old man studying him. The old man's white hair and beard were matted with blood from

his nose and split lip. His blue eyes twinkled with the reflected light of the street-lamps,

though the tissue around them was red and swollen.

"Wha... what happened. I feel as bad as you look."

"Just take it easy son. Those boys gave you a pretty good beating. Sorry, but you don't

look so good yourself, you kinda remind me of ten miles of bad road." The old man

chuckled, then became serious again. "You saved me from those whippersnappers, and I

sure thank you. I'm sorry you had to take a beating on my account. You broke that one

fella's nose pretty good, and I'll bet the others really hurt their hands on your head." He

chuckled again.

"Don't make me laugh, old man. It hurts too much. Who the hell are you anyway?"

"Don't you recognize me?"

Daryl sat up and studied the old man. He had taken a bit of a beating himself, and his red

Santa suit was soiled and torn.

"Sorry, I don't. Maybe if you took off the Santa outfit."

The old man's massive belly shook as he laughed. "It's no costume, son. I'm the real

thing. I'm Kris Kringle."

"Yeah right. I'm serious, laughing kind of hurts right now. Help me up and I'll walk you

to the police station."

"Oh, no, no. That won't do at all. I've still got a lot of ground to cover tonight. I'm late, I

must get going."

"Don't be silly. The police department is just a few blocks away. Let me just get my stuff

and I'll walk over there with you. I'm O.K. Nothing broken or anything."

Daryl turned to retrieve his packages.

"I'm sorry, old timer. Things like this usually don't happen around here. Those young

punks should be.... Wait! Where's my packages! Those little so and so's stole my

Christmas presents and my turkey!"

Daryl's hand shot to his rear pocket. "They stole my wallet too! Of all the bad luck. I

knew I should have minded my own business. Did you see which way they went?"

No answer.

Daryl turned to face the old Santa. "I asked you if you saw which way they... Old man?"

Daryl's gaze fell on an empty street. The old man in the Santa suit was nowhere to be

seen.

"Just great. I get my butt whipped, my wallet stolen, lose my Christmas presents and

Christmas dinner, and that crazy old man just wanders off. OLD MAN, COME BACK!"

Daryl hollered in frustration.

Once he realized that the Santa was indeed gone, he began to rant, rave, and hit the

concrete sides of the underpass. I can't repeat his words in mixed company. Suddenly,

Daryl's ranting words were drowned out by a piercing, WHOOP, WHOOP. As Daryl

turned towards the sound, the bright beam of the police spotlight blinded him.

"Now you guys show up."

*****

Later, the police cruiser pulled up slowly in front of Daryl's house.

"Thanks for the ride, guy. I appreciate it."

The police officer leaned towards the passenger side door.

"No problem. Sorry about the hard time we gave you tonight. You've got to admit, you

were acting pretty crazy, and your story sounded even crazier. Santa getting mugged… I

can't remember the last time Raton had a mugging, let alone on Santa Claus. Merry

Christmas to you."

"Yeah, some Christmas. Thanks again, officer."

Daryl's mood had improved somewhat, but as he approached his front door he was filled

with sadness. Christmas was ruined. He'd lost his presents for Sara and the kids, he'd lost

Christmas dinner, and he'd lost the little money he had left.

"Darn crazy old man probably deserved to be mugged. Should have just minded my own

business."

Sara was awake. The police had called and assured her that he was all right, but Daryl

could tell that she had been crying. Daryl fell into her arms.

"I'm sorry babe."

His wife smiled sadly, "No use crying over spilled milk. Come on to bed and tell me all

about it."

Sara and Daryl checked in on the kids before retiring to their bedroom. Daryl thought to

himself how sweet and innocent his daughters looked.

"It's not fair that a bunch of young punks and a crazy old man should ruin their

Christmas. It's just not fair."

As he lay in his bed, Sara stroking the hair on his forehead, Daryl relived the events of

the night. Sara was silent after he finished. For a moment neither spoke, then Daryl broke

down and began to cry.

"I'm so sorry, Sara. I've ruined Christmas. When will I ever learn? I'm just a born loser.

You and the kids would be better off without me."

Sara took Daryl's head into her small hands and looked him in the eye. Daryl could see

anger behind her ocean blue eyes, and he turned away.

"Here it comes," he thought to himself.

"You listen here, Mr. Daryl Washburn. You're no loser and I love you very much. I won't

have such talk. You're a good husband and father. The twins adore you and I hope this

little package I'm carrying now will be a boy... and I hope he grows up to be just like his

daddy. You did the right thing tonight. You couldn't just stand by and watch a poor

helpless old man get beaten and robbed. I'm proud of you, and I'll not tolerate any more

self-pity. You didn't ruin Christmas, and neither did that old man or those terrible young

hoodlums. Christmas has nothing to do with money, or turkeys, or presents. You're safe,

you have a family that loves you, and we're together. What more could anyone ask for?"

Daryl raised his head and looked at his wife, tears welling in her eyes, proudly defiant.

She never looked more beautiful.

"I love you, Sara."

"Turn out the light, darling. Tomorrow is another day."

*****

The excited screams of Daryl's twin daughters woke him after it seemed he had just fallen

asleep.

"Daddy! Mommy! Wake up! It's Christmas!" Molly and Millie jumped into the bed, then

back out, too excited to stay still.

"O.K. girls, go on downstairs. Daddy and I will be down in a minute. We need to talk to

you."

Millie ran out, Molly close on her heals.

"Can we open our presents, Mommy?" they pleaded on the way out.

The girls were gone in a flash, saving Daryl and Sara the difficult answer.

"I guess we'd better get it over with."

Arms around each other, Daryl and Sara walked down the stairs, each dreading having to

face their daughters empty handed on Christmas morning. Daryl's heart was almost torn

to shreds when he saw the confused, worried look on the faces of his girls as they

searched the house for presents they knew had to be somewhere.

"Santa didn't come, did he?" Millie's eyes were filling with tears.

Molly was more optimistic. "Maybe he's playing a trick on us. Kinda like the Easter

Bunny does." Her voice didn't sound confident.

Daryl started to speak, but the words wouldn't come. Sara took charge, wiping her tear

soaked eyes. "Girls, let's sit down and talk..."

The ringing of the doorbell gave Sara a reprieve.

"Who could that be? Get the door Daryl, I need to put something on." She streaked up the

stairs.

When Daryl opened the door, he almost had a stroke. The police officer who had helped

him the night before was standing on the porch, and he seemed to have the entire police

department with him… and the fire department as well.

"Uh... Merry Christmas officer... er... officers. Can I help you?" Daryl's voice was meek,

indeed.

"Sorry to bother you at home, sir. But we figured you would want this stuff."

He handed Daryl a few packages.

"I believe that these were the items stolen from you last night."

Daryl was dumbfounded. "How did you find them?"

"Well sir, the punks that stole it from you turned themselves in, and brought their loot

with them. It seems they had a good night robbing citizens and looting businesses, but

met up with some guy dressed in a Santa suit who scared the bejabbers out of them. They

were so scared of the guy that they confessed to about three dozen robberies and

burglaries, committed over that last month. They asked us to protect them by putting

them in jail. Go figure."

"Daryl, why is the whole police department here?" Sara joined her husband at the door,

her eyes wide with wonder.

"And the fire department too, ma'am," piped the policeman, "We needed some help in

getting all your other stuff over here."

Now Daryl was confused. "What stuff? This is all I had, except for a turkey."

"We got your turkey too, sir. It wasn't in such good shape though, so these guys and I all

chipped in to get you this one." The officer snapped his fingers, and a young fireman

stepped forward and handed Daryl a thirty-pound Butterball.

Sara's eyes were beginning to get moist again. "Thank you all so much, but what is all

that other stuff?"

"Well ma'am, that's a funny thing. We figured that you all needed a few more toys for

your kids, so we went to load up the SWAT wagon with our leftover Toys-for-Tots stuff.

When we opened the door of the wagon, we found a bunch of Christmas packages, all

with your names on them. The darn wagon was so full of stuff; we had to call the fire

department to help us deliver it to you. I don't even want to think about how it all got

there. We see lots of weird stuff in our line of work. I quit asking questions a long time

ago."

As Daryl and Sara stood and stared, jaws dropped to their chests, the police and firemen

formed a bucket line and began passing brightly wrapped packages to each other, and

into the house. Molly and Millie began tearing the wrappings off at once, their delighted

screams filling the paper-strewn air. It took most of the morning to unwrap all of the

presents. There were toys and clothing for the twins, as well as for the little one on the

way. There were grown-up presents as well. Sara got the set of books she wanted, the

complete works of Stephen King. Daryl got a state-of-the-art computer, along with a

printer, assorted software, and a book: How to Make Money at Home With Your PC.

Daryl's dream seemed within his reach once again.

"Yes, tomorrow is another day," he thought to himself.

*****

Later that evening, Daryl laid back in the easy chair. The combination of all the

excitement of the last day, and a great turkey dinner, had exhausted him. He didn't try to

rationalize the events of the day… that could be done later, after a good night's sleep. For

now, he was content at admitting that Christmas was indeed a magical day. He got up and

went to the kitchen to turn off the lights. Sara had already gone up to bed, and he was

anxious to snuggle up in a nice warm bed. He flipped the switch and returned to the

living room.

"I told you I was running late."

The voice made Daryl jump. Sitting in Daryl's easy chair, smoking a pipe, was a chubby

little old man with a white beard. His red suit was soiled and torn. His eyes had a twinkle

that made Daryl recognize him at once.

"You'd better go up to your wife now, son."

Before Daryl could speak a word, he was gone. He rubbed his eyes, not sure of their

accuracy.

"I'd better get some sleep," he mumbled as he trudged up the stairs, checked in on the

girls and went to his bedroom. Sara was still awake, gazing out the window at the moon

rising over Johnson Mesa.

"This is a magical town," she whispered.

"Yes, it is."

Sara turned to face him. There was a mysterious glow in her eyes. "There's one more

present for you."

"You mean Molly and Millie missed one?"

"No dear." Her eyes were laughing.

"You mean...?"

Daryl wasn't that tired. He reached out to embrace her.

Sara began to giggle.

"Yes. I think it's time to go to the hospital."
WISH YOU A MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYZRxq3jCJo&feature=player_detailpage

Hmmmm....

Environmental Factors Limit Species Diversity, Lizard Study Finds

 New research on lizards in the Caribbean demonstrates that species diversification is limited by the environment. The finding supports and extends the MacArthur-Wilson theory of island biogeography.

It's long been accepted by biologists that environmental factors cause the diversity -- or number -- of species to increase before eventually leveling off. Some recent work, however, has suggested that species diversity continues instead of entering into a state of equilibrium. But new research on lizards in the Caribbean not only supports the original theory that finite space, limited food supplies, and competition for resources all work together to achieve equilibrium; it builds on the theory by extending it over a much longer timespan.

The research was done by Daniel Rabosky of the University of California, Berkeley and Richard Glor of the University of Rochester who studied patterns of species accumulation of lizards over millions of years on the four Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Their paper is being published December 21 in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Glor and Rabosky focused on species diversity -- the number of distinct species of lizards -- not the number of individual lizards.
"Geographic size correlates to diversity," said Glor. "In general, the larger the area, the greater the number of species that can be supported. For example, there are 60 species of Anolis lizards on Cuba, but far fewer species on the much smaller islands of Jamaica and Puerto Rico." There are only 6 species on Jamaica and 10 on Puerto Rico.
Ecologists Robert MacArthur of Princeton University and E.O. Wilson of Harvard University established the theory of island biogeography in the 1960s to explain the diversity and richness of species in restricted habitats, as well as the limits on the growth in number of species. Glor said the MacArthur-Wilson theory was developed for ecological time-scales, which encompass thousands of years, while his work with Rabosky extends the concepts over a million years. "MacArthur and Wilson recognized the macroevolutionary implications of their work," explained Glor, "but focused on ecological time-scales for simplicity."
Historically, biologists needed fossil records to study patterns of species diversification of lizards on the Caribbean islands. But advances in molecular methodology allowed Glor and Rabosky to use DNA sequences to reconstruct evolutionary trees that show the relationships between species.
The two scientists found that species diversification of lizards on the four islands reached a plateau millions of years ago and has essentially come to an end.
Glor said the extent and quality of the data used in the research allowed him and Rabosky to show that species diversification of lizards on the islands was not continuing and had indeed entered a state of equilibrium.
"When we look at other islands and continents that vary in species richness," said Glor, "we can't just consider rates of accumulation; we need to look at the plateau points."
Glor emphasizes that a state of equilibrium does not mean that the evolution of a species comes to an end. Lizards will continue to adapt to changes in their environment, but they are not expected to develop in a way that increases the number of species within a habitat.
Glor believes his work with Rabosky represents the "final word" on the importance of limits on species diversity over the rate of speciation when explaining the species-area relationship in anole lizards.

A Heart-Touching Story....

A CHANCE ENCOUNTER!


I was on tour to Suratgarh in the summer of 1994. After spending 2 days in this border town, I had 4 hours to while away as I waited for the night bus for Delhi.
       I walked around for some time and settled down under a tree. I felt restless and started walking again.I could see a young girl approaching from a distance. As she got closer, she asked,"Are you a visitor?" I nodded. She repeated her query. I nodded again. She gave me a blank look.
       I looked at her face and realised she was blind. To make up for my indifference, I started a conversation with her. Time flew as she spoke incessantly about her life. I took her leave unwillingly only when it was time to board the bus.
       She kept me spellbound with her story. She said, "I lost my eyesight when I was 3 and a half years old after an illness. I satrted living in the world of four senses where it was not the flood of sunshine streaming through the window or the colours of the rainbow that mattered, but the feel of the sun against the skin, the slow drizzling sound of the spattering rain. When I was 6 years old, I was sent tot the school for the blind to study."

       She paused and added, "I am Uttara.....Uttara Reshmaiyya. One day, I will teach the blind. Can I have your address? I will surely come to Delhi some day."
       I left my address with Uttara. During my overnight journey back to Delhi, I could not sleep and kept thinking of the remarkable girl I had met. I was moved by her resolve and the way she viewed her handicap I wondered why she had asked for my address and guilt gnawed at me. "I should have offered her some help. Why did not I?" I asked myself. I could not face my selfishness. I had never prayed, but that night as the bus sped through deserted townships, I felt like stooping to the unknown omnipotence. I mumbled, "Let there be light in Uttara's life. Let her resolve succeed."
       I had almost forgotten about Uttara and her reslove till one evening last year, an envelope was waiting for me, when I returned from work. It was from the National School of the Blind. I was curious and opened the envelope quickly. A small typed letter in English took me by surprise.
       It read : "It was 12 years ago in the summer of 1994 at Suratgarh. I still remember you. Do you remember how you prayed for me that night? I am grateful ; your prayers have come true. If this letter reaches you, tell me how I can reach you. My story has moved slowly but surely. I am now a research assistant at the National School of the Blind. I am doing my Masters and teaching students."
       I slumped in my deck chair and took it in. I wondered how she knew that I had prayed. The only time I did, was in the dead of night, in a moving bus 12 years ago, with my fellow travellers dozing. How did Uttatra know? Did she have a sixth sense? I remained lost in thought the rest of the evening. The night was no better. I remained restless in bed.
       I woke up in the morning, looking for an answer. I decided to skip office and meet Uttara.

Please forward this story to any 10 friends......
MAY GOD BLESS YOU!

Aakhir Dost Kaun!!!?

मेरा दोस्त !

 दोस्त वह नहीं जो हो आपके पास,

दोस्त वह नहीं जो करें बातें ख़ास,
दोस्त तो वही है जो दोस्ती निभाए,
दोस्त तो वही है जो आपके लिए खुशियाँ लाये |

दोस्त वह नहीं जिसके पास हो दौलत सारी,
दोस्त वह नहीं जिससे पूरी दुनिया हारी,
दोस्त वह है जिसके पास आपके लिए हो जिगर,
दोस्त वह है जो आपका साथ दे हर डगर |

दोस्त वह नहीं जो आपके लिए मांगे मन्नत,
दोस्त वह नहीं जिसमें  हो सच्चाई की किल्लत,
दुनिया में हर जगह मिलेंगे दोस्त,
क्योंकि हर दुश्मन में है आपका एक दोस्त |

OMG....

SOHO Spots 2,000th Comet

As people on Earth celebrate the holidays and prepare to ring in the New Year, an ESA/NASA spacecraft has quietly reached its own milestone: on December 26, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) discovered its 2000th comet.

Drawing on help from citizen scientists around the world, SOHO has become the single greatest comet finder of all time. This is all the more impressive since SOHO was not specifically designed to find comets, but to monitor the sun.

"Since it launched on December 2, 1995 to observe the sun, SOHO has more than doubled the number of comets for which orbits have been determined over the last three hundred years," says Joe Gurman, the U.S. project scientist for SOHO at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.
Of course, it is not SOHO itself that discovers the comets -- that is the province of the dozens of amateur astronomer volunteers who daily pore over the fuzzy lights dancing across the pictures produced by SOHO's LASCO (or Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph) cameras. Over 70 people representing 18 different countries have helped spot comets over the last 15 years by searching through the publicly available SOHO images online.
One comet discovered by SOHO is Comet 96P Machholz. It orbits the sun approximately every 6 years and SOHO has seen it three times. Credit: NASA/ESA/SOHO The 1999th and 2000th comet were both discovered on December 26 by Michal Kusiak, an astronomy student at Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Poland. Kusiak found his first SOHO comet in November 2007 and has since found more than 100.
"There are a lot of people who do it," says Karl Battams who has been in charge of running the SOHO comet-sighting website since 2003 for the Naval Research Lab in Washington, where he also does computer processing for LASCO. "They do it for free, they're extremely thorough, and if it wasn't for these people, most of this stuff would never see the light of day."
Battams receives reports from people who think that one of the spots in SOHO's LASCO images looks to be the correct size and brightness and headed for the sun -- characteristics typical of the comets SOHO finds. He confirms the finding, gives each comet an unofficial number, and then sends the information off to the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Mass, which categorizes small astronomical bodies and their orbits.
It took SOHO ten years to spot its first thousand comets, but only five more to find the next thousand. That's due partly to increased participation from comet hunters and work done to optimize the images for comet-sighting, but also due to an unexplained systematic increase in the number of comets around the sun. Indeed, December alone has seen an unprecedented 37 new comets spotted so far, a number high enough to qualify as a "comet storm."
LASCO was not designed primarily to spot comets. The LASCO camera blocks out the brightest part of the sun in order to better watch emissions in the sun's much fainter outer atmosphere, or corona. LASCO's comet finding skills are a natural side effect -- with the sun blocked, it's also much easier to see dimmer objects such as comets.
"But there is definitely a lot of science that comes with these comets," says Battams. "First, now we know there are far more comets in the inner solar system than we were previously aware of, and that can tell us a lot about where such things come from and how they're formed originally and break up. We can tell that a lot of these comets all have a common origin." Indeed, says Battams, a full 85% of the comets discovered with LASCO are thought to come from a single group known as the Kreutz family, believed to be the remnants of a single large comet that broke up several hundred years ago.
The Kreutz family comets are "sungrazers" -- bodies whose orbits approach so near the Sun that most are vaporized within hours of discovery -- but many of the other LASCO comets boomerang around the sun and return periodically. One frequent visitor is comet 96P Machholz. Orbiting the sun approximately every six years, this comet has now been seen by SOHO three times.
SOHO is a cooperative project between the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA. The spacecraft was built in Europe for ESA and equipped with instruments by teams of scientists in Europe and the USA.

Impossible???

Dust Shatters Like Glass: Several Times More Dust Particles in Atmosphere Than Previously Thought

Clues to future climate may be found in the way that an ordinary drinking glass shatters. A study appearing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds that microscopic particles of dust, emitted into the atmosphere when dirt breaks apart, follow similar fragment patterns to broken glass and other brittle objects.

The research, by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Jasper Kok, suggests there are several times more dust particles in the atmosphere than previously thought, since shattered dirt appears to produce an unexpectedly high number of large dust fragments.

The finding has implications for understanding future climate change because dust plays a significant role in controlling the amount of solar energy in the atmosphere. Depending on their size and other characteristics, some dust particles reflect solar energy and cool the planet, while others trap energy as heat.
"As small as they are, conglomerates of dust particles in soils behave the same way on impact as a glass dropped on a kitchen floor," Kok says. "Knowing this pattern can help us put together a clearer picture of what our future climate will look like."
The study may also improve the accuracy of weather forecasting, especially in dust-prone regions. Dust particles affect clouds and precipitation, as well as temperatures.
The research was supported by the National Science Foundation, which sponsors NCAR.
Shattered soil
Kok's research focused on a type of airborne particle known as mineral dust. These particles are usually emitted when grains of sand are blown into soil, shattering dirt and sending fragments into the air. The fragments can be as large as about 50 microns in diameter, or about the thickness of a fine strand of human hair.
The smallest particles, which are classified as clay and are as tiny as 2 microns in diameter, remain in the atmosphere for about a week, circling much of the globe and exerting a cooling influence by reflecting heat from the Sun back into space. Larger particles, classified as silt, fall out of the atmosphere after a few days. The larger the particle, the more it will tend to have a heating effect on the atmosphere.
Kok's research indicates that the ratio of silt particles to clay particles is two to eight times greater than represented in climate models.
Since climate scientists carefully calibrate the models to simulate the actual number of clay particles in the atmosphere, the paper suggests that models most likely err when it comes to the number of silt particles. Most of these larger particles swirl in the atmosphere within about 1,000 miles of desert regions, so adjusting their quantity in computer models should generate better projections of future climate in desert regions, such as the southwestern United States and northern Africa.
Additional research will be needed to determine whether future temperatures in those regions will increase more or less than currently indicated by computer models.
The study results also suggest that marine ecosystems, which draw down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, may receive substantially more iron from airborne particles than previously estimated. The iron enhances biological activity, benefiting ocean food chains, including plants that take up carbon during photosynthesis.
In addition to influencing the amount of solar heat in the atmosphere, dust particles also get deposited on mountain snowpacks, where they absorb heat and accelerate melt.
Glass and dust: Common fracture patterns
Physicists have long known that certain brittle objects, such as glass or rocks, and even atomic nuclei, fracture in predictable patterns. The resulting fragments follow a certain range of sizes, with a predictable distribution of small, medium, and large pieces. Scientists refer to this type of pattern as scale invariance or self-similarity.
Physicists have devised mathematical formulas for the process by which cracks propagate in predictable ways as a brittle object breaks. Kok theorized that it would be possible to use these formulas to estimate the range of dust particle sizes. He turned to a 1983 study by Guillaume d'Almeida and Lothar Schüth from the Institute for Meteorology at the University of Mainz in Germany that measured the particle size distribution of arid soil.
By applying the formulas for fracture patterns of brittle objects to the soil measurements, Kok determined the size distribution of emitted dust particles. To his surprise, the formulas described measurements of dust particle sizes almost exactly.
"The idea that all these objects shatter in the same way is a beautiful thing, actually," Kok says. "It's nature's way of creating order in chaos."
About the article
Title: "A scaling theory for the size distribution of emitted dust aerosols suggests that climate models underestimate the size of the global dust cycle"

Bravo....!!!

UNC scientists pinpoint link between light signal and circadian rhythms

Chapel Hill, NC – In a new paper published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Aziz Sancar, MD, PhD, the Sarah Graham Kenan Professor of Biochemistry and Biophysics in the UNC School of Medicine, and his colleagues have taken an important step in understanding the underlying molecular signals that influence a broad array of biological processes ranging from the sleep-wake cycle to cancer growth and development.
Scientists who work in this field, known as chronobiology, have identified the genes that direct circadian rhythms in people, mice, fruit flies, fungi and several other organisms. However, the mechanisms by which those genes interact with light in the organism's environment have not been well understood.
Circadian rhythms are the physical, mental and behavioral changes that follow the earth's 24 hour cycle, responding primarily to light and darkness in an organism's environment.
About 15 years ago, Sancar discovered a human protein called cryptochrome which acts as a core component of the molecular clock in mammals. The protein is also found in fruit flies, other insects, and plants.
"Cryptochrome 'resets' the circadian clock, but we were not sure how it worked," said Sancar, who is also a member of UNC Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center.
Using fruit flies (Drosophilia melanogaster), the team purified cryptochrome and developed a biochemical test that shows when and how the protein transmits signals.
"We can now detect the protein at work. When we expose cryptochrome to blue light in fruit flies, a millisecond of light exposure has a half-life during which we can examine the mechanism in the laboratory," said Sancar. "We can follow the molecular signals after light exposure and have a reliable model to test various hypotheses about how light interacts with the circadian systems we know are so important to biological processes."
The research may be useful to scientists who study the circadian clock's relationship to sleep disorders, jet lag, cancer, bipolar disorder, depression and other diseases.